BAUD: Ukraine’s Plan to Force NATO’s Hand

Col. Jacques Baud addresses the latest development: Ukraine has asked Washington for Tomahawk missiles, weapons capable of striking far into Russian territory (01:10). While some American officials have hinted that such strikes might be possible, Baud points out that both the Biden and Trump administrations have avoided authorizing Ukraine to attack Russia’s strategic depth. Militarily, he says, the impact of Tomahawks would be limited, but politically the consequences would be enormous.

He recalls how Washington deliberately restricted the range of systems it provided to Kyiv. When Ukraine tested those limits by firing at Bryansk in 2024, roughly 120 kilometers from the border, Russia responded by destroying the Yuzhmash plant in Dnipro, where the Hrim-2/Sapsan missile was being developed, using its new Oreshnik system (08:54, 10:01). For Baud, this was less a battlefield move than a clear political warning: deeper strikes would escalate the conflict into new territory.

On negotiations, Baud stresses that Moscow’s position has been consistent. Since June 14, 2024, Russia has set two conditions: Ukraine must renounce NATO membership, and its forces must withdraw from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson (23:16). The West has ignored these terms. After Minsk and the collapse of the Istanbul talks in 2022, Baud argues, Moscow will no longer make “good faith” withdrawals. “We tricked them before,” he says, “and they won’t be tricked again.” The Baud warns that, as Western support falters, Kyiv may resort to a false-flag operation to force Europe into the war.