EXCLUSIVE: The Coming Collapse of Western Strategy

Alastair Crooke delivers a sharp, unsettling account of the Trump administration’s strike on Iran, arguing it wasn’t just about hitting nuclear sites but a deliberate plan to collapse the entire state from within. Persuaded by allies in Washington and Tel Aviv that Iran was a fragile “house of cards,” Trump signed off on an operation he thought would spark a popular uprising and regime change. Instead, Crooke says, the attack backfired spectacularly, unifying the country and forging a new, defiant Iranian identity.

He warns that this miscalculation has unleashed forces far more dangerous than Washington admits, re-energizing sectarian conflict and resurrecting ISIS in Syria. Crooke describes how Sunni extremist groups are gaining new life even as Shia clerics rally their communities with calls for jihad if Iran is attacked again. Meanwhile, he says, Israel and the U.S. are demanding Lebanon disarm Hezbollah under threat of dismemberment, setting the stage for another catastrophic civil war.

But the real danger, Crooke insists, is the blindness behind these plans—a hubris that repeats itself from Tehran to Moscow to Beijing. He argues that the same strategic arrogance driving failed regime-change gambits in the Middle East is now pushing the West toward a much broader geopolitical breakdown, with rival powers consolidating against it.

Crooke explains that this arrogance is alive in Ukraine strategy too, where Washington bets it can bleed Russia through a drawn-out war of attrition. He describes a plan relying on seizing frozen Russian assets to fund long-range missile deliveries, convinced that Putin’s regime will eventually fracture—yet he warns this only accelerates de-dollarization and deepens Russia’s resolve.

He argues Western leaders are making the same mistake with China, misreading its economic resilience and political cohesion while escalating tariff wars and military tensions. Crooke suggests that far from dividing these adversaries, U.S. policy is forging an unprecedented strategic alignment between China, Russia, and Iran.

Returning to Iran, Crooke warns that European moves to trigger "snapback" sanctions risk pushing Tehran to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether. Such a move would provide Israel with a new justification for war, while Western leaders refuse to acknowledge that inspections alone cannot guarantee Iran won’t pursue a bomb.

He exposes Azerbaijan’s quiet role as a staging ground for covert operations—arming networks that can hit both Iran and Russia while Britain and NATO look the other way. Crooke describes this Caucasus frontier as a brewing hotspot for sabotage, destabilization, and escalation that gets little mainstream attention.

Crooke paints a picture of cascading failure: Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Caucasus all risk reigniting as fronts in a broader proxy war. He argues these aren't disconnected crises but the fallout from a failed diplomatic vision that treats military and economic coercion as substitutes for genuine understanding.

He also highlights a less-covered shift: Sunni factions aligning with Iran against shared threats, undermining the old narrative of sectarian division. This realignment complicates Israel and Washington’s hopes of isolating Tehran and threatens to redraw the balance of power across the Middle East.

In the end, Crooke says the West’s greatest enemy may be its own hubris, as it overextends military commitments and loses credibility in the eyes of allies and rivals alike. He warns that this decomposition of the Western project is no longer theoretical but already accelerating, creating space for Iran, Russia, China, and the Global South to reshape the world order on their own terms.

Alastair Crooke is a former British intelligence officer, diplomat, and specialist in Middle East negotiations, renowned for his deep understanding of political Islam and complex conflict dynamics. Born in 1949, Crooke spent nearly three decades in Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), operating in conflict zones such as Northern Ireland, South Africa, Colombia, Afghanistan, and the Middle East. He later served as a senior security adviser to the European Union, where he helped broker ceasefires during the Second Intifada, negotiated with groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and contributed to the Mitchell Committee investigating the causes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Crooke also played a role in backchannel diplomacy with Hezbollah and facilitated delicate negotiations during crises like the siege of the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem.

Crooke is the founder and director of Conflicts Forum, a Beirut-based organization dedicated to fostering dialogue between the West and Islamist movements. He has written extensively on the ideological roots of political Islam, including his book Resistance: The Essence of the Islamist Revolution, which examines the worldview and motivations of groups often dismissed in Western policy circles. Beyond writing, he is a sought-after analyst and commentator, appearing in international forums, media interviews, and publications that explore the geopolitical implications of Western foreign policy, regional power shifts, and the intersection of ideology and strategy in conflict. His experience negotiating directly with non-state actors and his insistence on understanding their perspectives have made his analysis especially valuable for those seeking to grasp the real drivers of instability and change in the Middle East.

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